Israel
Final polls put Eisenkot bloc ahead but short of majority four days before Israel votes
By Jewish Life Staff, . Jewish Life.
Four days before Israelis go to the polls, every final pre-election survey published by the country's main television channels pointed in the same direction: Gadi Eisenkot's opposition bloc ahead, Benjamin Netanyahu's governing coalition behind, and no clear path to a majority for either side.
What the polls showed
Channel 12, Channel 13, and Kan public television each released their last surveys on Friday evening. Haaretz reported that Channel 12 projected Eisenkot's bloc at 56 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's; Channel 13 put the figures at 54 and 50; Kan showed 52 against 50. The 61-seat threshold for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset remained out of reach for both sides in all three polls.
Eisenkot's Yashar party led as the single largest party in every survey. Channel 12 gave it 23 seats; Channel 13 and Kan each gave it 22, according to Haaretz. Netanyahu's Likud came second, with 21 seats in Channel 12's poll, 20 in Kan's, and 19 in Channel 13's.
The Jewish Chronicle's analysis of the same three network polls found Yashar projected at 22 seats and Likud at 20, with the Beyachad alliance of former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in third place on 14 seats. The publication noted that Likud had narrowed the gap to Yashar since last month, when it was projected at 17 seats, but that shifts among smaller parties had widened Eisenkot's overall bloc lead.
The smaller parties
Haaretz reported that Kan and Channel 13 each gave the Beyachad alliance 14 seats, while Channel 12 gave it 15. The right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu, which opposes Netanyahu's bloc, held at eight seats across all three channels. The Democrats, led by former general Yair Golan, received 10 seats in the Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls and eight in Kan's.
Within Netanyahu's coalition, Haaretz reported that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party was projected at eight seats in all three polls, one seat up from the previous survey. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party was given eight seats by Channel 13, seven by Kan, and six by Channel 12.
Arab-majority parties, whose disqualification last month was overturned by Israel's Supreme Court, received between 14 and 16 seats across the three polls, Haaretz reported. The Jerusalem Post, citing four surveys including those from Maariv and the three television networks, reported the Arab parties at a combined 14 to 15 seats and noted they are not affiliated with either main bloc.
The coalition problem
The Jewish Chronicle reported that the two blocs were neck and neck in September, each projected near 52 to 53 seats, but that Netanyahu's prospective coalition had since fallen to around 50 while Eisenkot's held near 53. The publication said unaligned parties, including Arab-Israeli factions and a centrist reservists' grouping, had risen from 15 to as many as 17 projected seats, and could reach 19 in some polls, giving them potential leverage in any coalition talks.
JNS reported, in a column by Fiamma Nirenstein labeled as opinion, that if the anti-Netanyahu parties cannot reach 61 seats on their own they may need Arab party support to form a government, and that this prospect raises what the columnist called profound questions in the aftermath of the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. The column also noted that polling suggested a national unity government held appeal for significant numbers of Israelis in both camps, though the question of who would lead it remained a central obstacle.
The Jerusalem Post reported that its four surveyed polls showed the two blocs in a virtual tie, averaging 51.25 seats for the Zionist opposition and 51 for Netanyahu's coalition, with smaller parties near the electoral threshold playing a potentially decisive role. The election takes place on October 27.